The Coming Wave - critical summary review

The authors begin by tracing the historical impact of technological waves, illustrating how each has profoundly altered society. The current wave, powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology, promises to elevate human capabilities to godlike levels, but also introduces existential threats if not properly contained. They underline that containment, or the capacity to govern and regulate these technologies, is a major concern in the future.

Throughout the book, the authors detail the rapid advancements in AI, from early developments to modern breakthroughs like DeepMind’s AlphaGo and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. They also explore the rise of synthetic biology, which allows scientists to edit and even write the code of life, offering both incredible medical advancements and potential for misuse. "The Coming Wave" is a thought-provoking and accessible read, blending historical context, technical insights, and forward-looking analysis.

Humanity's journey from myth to AI

In the opening chapter, Suleyman explains the concept of waves—both literal and metaphorical—and how they have shaped human history and the world around us. He begins by discussing flood myths across various cultures, symbolizing the transformative power of these natural events. He then draws parallels between these physical waves and metaphorical ones, such as the rise and fall of empires, religions, and technologies.

Suleyman argues that human history has been marked by technological waves that proliferate and become more accessible over time, driving humanity’s progress. He introduces the idea that we are now on the brink of a new wave defined by AI and synthetic biology. These technologies hold the potential to drastically reshape the world, offering unprecedented opportunities but also posing significant risks.

He emphasizes that while these technologies could bring immense benefits, they also carry the potential for catastrophic consequences if misused or unchecked. Suleyman discusses the dilemma of whether it is possible or even desirable to contain this wave of innovation. He argues that our future is deeply intertwined with these technologies, and the challenge of managing them will be a defining issue of the 21st century.

He suggests that this new wave could lead humanity to a turning point, where the choices we make will determine whether we harness these technologies for the greater good or fall victim to their potential dangers. He urges a deeper and more serious engagement with the ethical and societal implications of this technological revolution.

How general-purpose technologies transform the world

The authors explore the concept of technological proliferation, using the development of personal transportation, particularly the internal combustion engine, as a central example. They outline how personal transportation evolved from walking and animal power to the revolutionary creation of engines, leading to the widespread use of automobiles. The chapter highlights the journey from early steam engines and experimental vehicles to the invention of the internal combustion engine by figures like Nicolaus Otto and Carl Benz.

Suleyman emphasizes that while these innovations began as obscure and complex, they eventually became mass-produced and integral to everyday life, as seen with the success of Henry Ford's Model T. This proliferation of automobiles revolutionized societies, creating new ways of living, working, and interacting. He then broadens the discussion to explain that this pattern of proliferation is not unique to automobiles but is characteristic of all major technological innovations throughout history.

He introduces the concept of "general-purpose technologies," which are transformative inventions that ripple through society, enabling further innovations and fundamentally altering human capabilities. Examples include the printing press, electricity, and now, digital technologies like computers. As new technologies emerge, they become cheaper and more accessible, driving demand and further innovation. This cycle leads to widespread adoption and integration into daily life, eventually making the technology so pervasive that it becomes invisible.

He also explores the unpredictable nature of technological progress and the profound challenges it presents, particularly in terms of unintended consequences and the need for containment. He illustrates how once technology is unleashed, its creators often lose control over its trajectory, leading to outcomes that are far beyond their original intentions—both positive and negative.

Suleyman uses historical examples to show how technologies have often diverged from their creators' intended purposes. For instance, Edison’s phonograph, intended to help the blind, became a medium for music, and Gutenberg’s printing press, intended to print Bibles, ended up catalyzing major societal shifts like the Reformation.

Containment in a technological cambrian explosion

Here the author explains the concept of "containment," which he argues is crucial for managing the risks associated with powerful technologies. Containment refers to the ability to control or limit the spread and impact of technology, particularly to prevent harmful outcomes. He compares this to the Cold War strategy of containing Soviet power but notes that the containment of technology is more complex since technology is not an adversary but an integral part of human society. Suleyman emphasizes that while complete control over technology’s consequences is impossible, it is still essential to attempt to steer its development and deployment in ways that maximize benefits and minimize harms. This involves not only technical safeguards and regulations but also cultural, ethical, and political mechanisms to ensure that technology aligns with societal values.

He acknowledges the challenges of containment by highlighting historical resistance to new technologies, such as the Ottoman Empire’s initial rejection of the printing press or the Luddites' opposition to industrial machinery. Despite these efforts, technology tends to spread, driven by demand and the promise of more efficient, powerful solutions. The chapter also discusses the partial success of nuclear containment as an exception to the general trend of technological proliferation. Despite the destructive potential of nuclear weapons, international efforts and the complex, expensive nature of nuclear technology have limited their spread. However, even in this case, Suleyman notes the ongoing risks and near-misses that underscore the difficulty of fully containing any powerful technology.

The author recounts his personal experience with the moment AI became real for him, particularly through the development of DeepMind's Deep Q-Network (DQN) in 2012. This experience was a pivotal moment for Suleyman and DeepMind, as it showcased AI's potential to surpass human cognitive abilities.

Suleyman also discusses the broader implications of these advancements, suggesting that AI, alongside other emerging technologies like synthetic biology, quantum computing, and robotics, is leading humanity into a new phase of technological evolution. This phase, characterized by the convergence of AI and other high-level technologies, promises unprecedented capabilities in controlling and manipulating the fundamental elements of the universe—atoms, bits, and genes. This convergence is likened to a "Cambrian explosion" of technological innovation, where the speed and unpredictability of advancements create a wave of change that will be difficult to contain.

Engineering life and the future of humanity

The authors emphasize that life, the universe's most ancient technology, evolved over billions of years through a slow, unguided process. However, in recent decades, humans have accelerated and directed this process through advancements in biotechnology. Suleyman highlights that DNA, the information-carrying molecule at the core of all living systems, has been decoded to the extent that humans can now edit and manipulate it. This capability has revolutionized various fields, leading to significant advancements in food production, medicine, and material science.

They discuss the CRISPR gene-editing technology, which allows precise modifications to DNA, marking a significant leap in genetic engineering. This technology has democratized biological science, making it accessible to more researchers and even hobbyists, much like how early computing technology empowered digital startups. Moreover, they explore the implications of synthetic biology, where DNA can be synthesized, effectively "writing" new genetic sequences.

This capability opens up vast possibilities, from creating new organisms to producing biological materials and even exploring the potential for biological computing. The convergence of biology and engineering, coupled with the exponential growth in capabilities and falling costs, is leading to a new era where life itself can be designed and engineered with unprecedented precision. This bio-revolution has the potential to transform industries, healthcare, and even the fundamental aspects of human life, raising profound ethical and societal questions.

Here, the authors also talk about the concept of technological waves, emphasizing that these waves consist of clusters of interrelated technologies that emerge together, anchored by General-Purpose Technologies (GPTs) like AI and synthetic biology. They explain that these waves are significant because they create a network of advancements that fuel further innovation, leading to a vast array of applications and new technologies.

They point out how general-purpose technologies act as accelerants, sparking the development of additional technologies that grow and evolve together. Suleyman argues that these technologies don’t exist in isolation but develop in “amplificatory loops,” where one technology propels others forward, leading to a cascading effect of innovation.

The changing dynamics of global power

Using the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a key example, Suleyman explores how advancements like drones and AI have transformed traditional notions of power and combat. Suleyman begins by examining the Ukrainian forces’ innovative use of technology during the early days of the Russian invasion. Despite being significantly outnumbered and less equipped compared to the Russian military, Ukrainian forces, particularly a group known as Aerorozvidka, effectively utilized homemade drones.

The chapter details how these drones, along with other tech such as AI-driven targeting systems and satellite internet from SpaceX's Starlink, provided a crucial advantage to the Ukrainians. This example underscores how relatively inexpensive and accessible technologies can significantly impact the outcomes of modern conflicts, challenging larger and more traditionally powerful militaries. One of the key points Suleyman makes is about the asymmetric nature of emerging technologies. These technologies can disproportionately benefit those who have access to them, regardless of their conventional military strength.

The Ukrainian case exemplifies how smaller or less powerful groups can use technology to counteract larger forces effectively. Suleyman discusses the rapid pace at which technologies, especially AI and robotics, are advancing. The speed of these developments often outstrips the ability of societies and governments to regulate and understand their implications fully. This rapid evolution contributes to the challenges of managing these technologies and predicting their potential impacts. Another important feature discussed is the versatility of emerging technologies.

Technologies designed for civilian use can be repurposed for military applications, creating dual-use scenarios that complicate regulation and oversight. This omni-use nature makes it difficult to control and monitor how these technologies are employed across different contexts. The chapter explores the increasing autonomy of technologies, where systems operate with minimal human intervention. This includes developments in autonomous vehicles and AI systems capable of independent decision-making. The rise of autonomous technologies introduces new risks, as reduced human oversight can lead to unintended consequences and escalation.

Suleyman highlights the difficulties in containing and regulating rapidly evolving technologies. The dual-use nature of these tools means they can be used for both beneficial and harmful purposes. As these technologies become more accessible, controlling their proliferation and ensuring they are used ethically becomes increasingly challenging. The chapter also serves as a cautionary note about the future risks associated with these technologies.

Challenges and solutions

Mustafa addresses the multifaceted challenges and strategies for managing the rapid advancement of technologies, particularly focusing on AI and its implications. He begins by acknowledging the inevitability of exponential technological change, which, despite its benefits, presents significant regulatory challenges. Suleyman argues that traditional regulatory frameworks are often inadequate, as they lag behind technological advancements and are hindered by broader governmental issues.

He criticizes the fragmented approach to managing technological risks and calls for a more unified regulatory strategy that integrates various efforts into a cohesive framework. Suleyman also introduces the concept of containment as a crucial strategy. This involves not just regulating technologies but implementing robust systems to manage their potential negative impacts. He outlines ten ideas for containing and managing advanced technologies, ranging from technical safety measures and physical containment to regular audits and broader societal actions.

He emphasizes the need for substantial investment in technical safety and advocates for an "Apollo Program" approach to enhance safety measures. In another chapter, the author explores "choke points"—strategic vulnerabilities in technology supply chains that can be leveraged to delay or disrupt technological progress. He highlights China's reliance on imports for critical technologies, such as advanced semiconductors, which creates a strategic vulnerability.

The U.S.'s export controls on these technologies have disrupted China's progress and temporarily slowed its technological development. Suleyman argues that choke points can be used strategically not only for geopolitical advantage but also for regulating and containing technological advancements more broadly. He emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to ensure that safety considerations are integrated into technological development.

Final notes

In "The Coming Wave," Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of the AI industry leader DeepMind, taps into the transformative potential and significant risks associated with AI. Written in accessible language, the book presents a balanced view of AI, highlighting its potential to revolutionize fields such as medicine, business, and agriculture while also underscoring the grave dangers it poses if left unchecked.

It also addresses the ethical concerns of AI decision-making, particularly when it comes to replacing human roles. However, some critics feel that the book’s later chapters shift towards politically charged and speculative discussions, detracting from the technical insights offered earlier.

12min tip

If you're curious about how AI will reshape our world in the next two decades, you won't want to miss the groundbreaking book by Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan. “AI 2041,” celebrated as a Best Book of the Year, by The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and Financial Times, offers a riveting glimpse into the future through ten captivating short stories and insightful commentary.